Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa

In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence increased by 146%, 256% and 300%, respectively, during the 1997/1998 epidemic. About 80% of statistical variation in malaria incidence can be explained by rainfall and temperature. Current methods of detection do not provide sufficient lead-time to introduce effective intervention. In 2001, however, a malaria epidemic prediction model was developed by the Kenya Medical Research Institute that uses climatic factors to detect an epidemic 2-4 months before its occurrence, allowing sufficient time for intervention. The model has been tested and validated in parts of Kenya and Tanzania. This project will fine-tune the model, incorporate site-specific factors and transfer it to end users in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, and eventually other countries in East Africa. It will enhance the capacity of policymakers and health officials to provide early warning and intervene in an effective manner, and the capacity of local populations to respond appropriately. Considering that climate is not the only factor driving malaria, researchers will assess the role of nonbiophysical factors in determining the incidence and control of the disease.

Projet nᵒ


État du projet


Date de début

Mardi, août 21, 2007

Date butoir

Mardi, mars 22, 2011


36 mois

Agent(e) responsable du CRDI

Kituyi, Evans N.

Financement total

CAD$ 782,802


Kenya, Tanzanie, Ouganda, Nord du Sahara, Sud du Sahara, Rwanda


Climate Change

Chargé(e) de projet

Dr. Andrew K. Githeko


Kenya Medical Research Institute

Institution Country