Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa

In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence increased by 146%, 256% and 300%, respectively, during the 1997/1998 epidemic. About 80% of statistical variation in malaria incidence can be explained by rainfall and temperature. Current methods of detection do not provide sufficient lead-time to introduce effective intervention. In 2001, however, a malaria epidemic prediction model was developed by the Kenya Medical Research Institute that uses climatic factors to detect an epidemic 2-4 months before its occurrence, allowing sufficient time for intervention. The model has been tested and validated in parts of Kenya and Tanzania. This project will fine-tune the model, incorporate site-specific factors and transfer it to end users in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, and eventually other countries in East Africa. It will enhance the capacity of policymakers and health officials to provide early warning and intervene in an effective manner, and the capacity of local populations to respond appropriately. Considering that climate is not the only factor driving malaria, researchers will assess the role of nonbiophysical factors in determining the incidence and control of the disease.

Project ID

104707

Project status

Closed

Start Date

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

End Date

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Duration

36 months

IDRC Officer

Kituyi, Evans N.

Total funding

CA$ 782,802

Countries

Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, North of Sahara, South of Sahara, Rwanda

Program

Climate Change

Project Leader

Dr. Andrew K. Githeko

Institution

Kenya Medical Research Institute

Institution Country

Kenya