Document(s) 21 of 26

Introduction

Public debate about hydrogen and fuel-cell technology takes place between two extremes: it is perceived as the immediate answer to all questions related to air pollution and noise, climate change and expensive fuels, but also as too dangerous even to think about. In contrast, Dutch policy is rather silent about these technologies. There are obligatory references to hydrogen as the energy carrier of the (far) future, but the option hardly features in the policy debates about the above-mentioned issues. The problem for hydrogen and fuel cells is that they are good for many policy objectives – air quality, climate change, security of energy supply, competitiveness/innovation – but not the best solution for any of them in the short term. In a sports analogy, hydrogen and fuel cells are much like the decathlete: the technology is a good all-rounder. In another analogy it is the homo universalis or "Renaissance man", but not an optimal specialist.

The Netherlands has started to develop long-term policy aimed at achieving a sustainable energy system, called the "energy transition" process. Hydrogen and fuel cells are finding a place here. This chapter presents the energy transition policy up to mid-2006, discusses the place and role of hydrogen and fuel cells in energy transition (drivers and barriers) and presents a plausible introduction path for hydrogen and fuel cells in the Netherlands.

Energy transition: Towards a sustainable energy system

Dutch energy policy aims to realize a sustainable energy economy for three basic reasons. For oil the Netherlands depends almost entirely on imports from countries outside the European Union. This makes the country vulnerable – especially the transport system, which is dominated by use of mineral oil products. Thanks to domestic natural gas resources the dependence on gas is less pressing, but these resources will run out in the next few decades. Then there are the negative environmental effects associated with using fossil fuels and the increasing cost of energy. These aspects force the country to think about its energy economy. The stated objective is that the Netherlands will have a sustainable energy system within 50 years. Energy should be affordable, continuously available and clean. In a sustainable energy system, energy demand would be reduced, renewable sources would be dominant and the system's emissions would be no more than the uptake capacity of the ecosystem, while comfort for consumers would be maintained.

Realizing a sustainable energy economy requires a new way of thinking and acting, drawing together competencies from various disciplines. The Netherlands has initiated the process of energy transition (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2004), and the government actively seeks public-private cooperation through the launch of several energy transition platforms involving collaboration between civic organizations, scientists, the government and companies working on alternative sources of energy. This collaboration results in vision, strategy, policy and innovative projects. Socially responsible entrepreneurship and healthy profits are important aspects of this process. The government role is to facilitate and enable a conducive policy environment: finance, removal of institutional blocks, creation of support networks, etc. Six departments have come together in an interdepartmental directorate for the energy transition programme. A task force for energy transition consisting of CEOs of major Dutch firms and institutes acts as watchdog for the process and provides advice on how the government can improve conditions for change.

Energy transition is inspired by research on system innovations and technological regime shifts and transitions. These terms all refer to important shifts in functional systems involving multilevel alterations through which society, or an important societal subsystem, fundamentally changes (Kemp, 1997; Hoogma et al., 2002; Hoogma, Weber and Elzen, 2005). Examples of past transitions are the moves from coal to natural gas for residential heating and electric power (in the Netherlands), from horse and carriage to the automobile and from the telegraph to telephone and internet. These processes took decades and involved changes at institutional, social, economic, ecological, technological and policy levels. In the late 1990s the Netherlands came to the conclusion that such fundamental changes are needed to solve persistent problems in the field of sustainability related to energy, biodiversity and use of natural resources, agriculture and mobility. With the sustainability challenge, the government decided to give the new approach of "transition management" a chance. This is not a planning process, but rather a heuristic process with some key elements: anticipation of future developments, developing visions and strategy in public-private discussions, learning by doing through experiments and adaptation of vision, strategy and policy based on lessons learnt (Rotmans, 2003).

Taking advantage of opportunities

The approach of energy transition is pragmatic, concrete and makes use of the possibilities available in the Netherlands, in both the short and the long term. The approach takes into account that changes are not only necessary but also create opportunities for innovation and economic growth. The Netherlands has many opportunities to make the transition to clean, affordable and reliable energy. The country has a unique combination of strengths and opportunities: strategic oil and gas reserves and developed capabilities, related oil and gas industries, petrochemical industries, its geographic position, advanced agriculture and supporting transport and logistics infrastructure. Challenges such as air quality, traffic congestion and high energy prices provide impetus to resolve these problems through more sustainable energy technology. The country is ideally located and resourced to become the centre of the north-west European gas hub, and a leader in bio-energy handling, production and trading. There is also well-developed industrial hydrogen infrastructure in the Rijnmond area near Rotterdam, which could be expanded for other uses (Royston, 2005). Energy transition combines this expertise and resources to realize sustainable energy in concrete projects. By focusing on national strengths, the country can take advantage of economic opportunities and improve its competitive position. Dutch firms can benefit from knowledge creation and economic opportunities that arise from exploiting new technology.

Main themes of energy transition

The participants in energy transition have established six themes, each championed by a public-private platform. The platforms are assigned the task of developing a vision and strategy. Unlike the EU technology platforms, they cover application areas/themes rather than technology fields. Public-private consortia conduct experiments based on these themes to ensure that the final aims become clear and feasible. Companies, scientific and civic organizations and government agencies are thus working together on these six themes (table 13.1):

• green raw materials
  
  
• sustainable mobility
  
  
• chain efficiency
  
  
• new gas
  
  
• sustainable electricity
  
  
• energy use in the built environment.

The public-private platforms have identified the most promising transition pathways for each of the six themes. Transition pathways are defined as a consistent ensemble of actions, fulfilled conditions and learning experiences that lead to the realization of a stated ambition. This portfolio is dynamic, in the sense that pathways may be discarded and new ones added when new information becomes available from experiments or when long-term market circumstances change, e.g. availability of feedstock. The portfolio comprises some pathways that will be competing for the same feedstock, the same infrastructure or at least the same funds. The current portfolio consists of 26 pathways (table 13.2), down from over 80 in a previous phase in energy transition. Discussions are ongoing about whether to make a further selection to focus attention and funding, or whether first to gather experience for the different pathways. The task force for energy transition calls for starting gathering experience in the different pathways (see below).

Critique of energy transition

Late in 2004 the Council for Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment and the General Energy Council of the Netherlands (2004) published a joint advisory on the energy transition process. While acknowledging that the process had a good start, they pointed to several aspects that needed strengthening. Their basic critique was that energy transition was thus far a "niche process" without much impact on wider policy and business strategies. Innovation, energy and sustainability policy remained largely separate, rarely intersecting in the energy transition process. Politicians lacked a sense of urgency about the need for a sustainable energy system – but this has changed since President Putin closed the natural gas pipeline to Ukraine. Collaboration between departments in energy transition was insufficient. The process was also considered to have too much national focus and lacked an international dimension. Finally, the advisory called for the drafting of a national energy transition action plan.

There are other critiques as well. Energy transition is considered by some as one big talking shop where old-boy networks are continued and large companies are in key positions to delay or control the pace of transition to benefit their vested interests. Time and money are spent on talk – defining visions and strategies – rather than on demonstration projects that provide lessons from practice about what works and what does not. The claim is that the discussions hardly lead to new insights, as each participant promotes its self-interest. Old project ideas are recycled as possible energy transition projects. The democratic nature of the process is also questioned, even though it is open to participation by various stakeholders.

There is also concern that the strengths of the Netherlands, especially its strong position in gas and oil refining, could provide lock-in. There is frustration that progress in energy transition is slow when it comes to making investments in actual production facilities and infrastructure, and that investments and knowledge creation are taking place elsewhere in Europe where other governments have made clearer long-term commitments and reduced the risks of investment (Royston, 2005). Another line of criticism is that energy transition is too technology dominated. System change, it is argued, has more to do with changes in consumer behaviour and organization of the market and government than with developing new technologies. There is thus a need for socio-economic research and monitoring to learn about how transitions actually happen rather than demonstration projects for individual technologies.

Transition Action Plan

In May 2006 the task force for energy transition published the national Transition Action Plan. The key message is that the Netherlands should strive to be an international leader in warding off the threats associated with the prosperous world's use of fossil raw materials for its energy supply. This high ambition requires a focused national strategy and mobilization of ingenuity, entrepreneurship and means. It implies a break from the recent past, when the Netherlands was a follower of Brussels in energy policy (e.g. in liberalization of the energy system) rather than a leader.

The portfolio of transition pathways is the core of the action plan. The choice for the portfolio sends three messages, according to the task force. First, it is realistic to keep options open as there is no simple solution to the world's energy problems. Second, the Netherlands should choose the pathways best suited to the country's strengths and industrial opportunities. Third, this approach stresses that a long-term perspective needs to be taken. With continuous economic growth, the plan will lead to a 50 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the 1990 level, annual energy savings of 1.5 per cent and progressively more sustainable energy systems between today and 2050. The task force calls for government support for the transition pathways via coherent, consistent and continuous long-term policy by subsequent cabinets (Task Force for Energy Transition, 2006).

The government welcomed the Transition Action Plan and started procedures to allocate @250 million (for a period of four to five years) to a number of energy transition experiments, funded by the windfall profits from Dutch natural gas.

Hydrogen in the Netherlands

It should be clear from the above that hydrogen is considered as only one potential option in the transition pathways portfolio. The most visible is hydrogen as a transportation fuel, but it also features in other themes. Hydrogen is considered in the pathways of green gas (as a final product, but also as an intermediate step in the production of synthetic natural gas), and "clean fossil" could include production of hydrogen for electric power from natural gas or coal with carbon sequestration. Hydrogen is also part of several routes of co-production of green raw materials, transportation biofuels, electricity and/or heat, as well as a semi-product or raw material in various industrial processes which could possibly be linked and optimized for better chain efficiency. And finally hydrogen produced from surplus wind energy could play a role in net balancing and load management for the electric power grid. At the time of writing, the discussion in energy transition about the role(s) of hydrogen in the future energy system had not yet matured. A working group on hydrogen is drafting a vision and strategy.

Several ongoing research projects feed into these discussions, and it is often the same persons or at least organizations that take part. HyWays (www.hyways.de) is an integrated project in the European Sixth Framework which is developing a European roadmap for hydrogen using a combined approach of consensus-oriented stakeholder discussions and modelling of economic, environmental and employment effects. The consortium consists mainly of industrial companies (automotive, energy, equipment), representatives of European countries, including the Netherlands, and research institutes. Most of the Dutch stakeholders are involved in vision building for the Netherlands. Largely the same group of stakeholders is also involved in a parallel project of the Environmental Institute of the Free University of Amsterdam, the Dialogue on Hydrogen (www.h2dialoog.nl). This project entails a participative enquiry into institutional strategies to foster the transition to a hydrogen economy. "Dialogue groups" of stakeholders develop strategies for three approaches: admixture of hydrogen to the natural gas grid and on-site hydrogen production for industry; hydrogen for transportation combined with fuel cells or other conversion technology; and decentralized production of sustainable hydrogen in the built environment.

Another major research project is "Greening of Gas", which studies the possibilities and conditions for admixture of hydrogen to the natural gas grid as a possible transition pathway for hydrogen. The project focuses on end use of the mixture in residential heating and industrial furnaces. The European "extension" of this is the integrated project NaturalHy, which has the same objective but explicitly looks at the possibilities to inject hydrogen in the natural gas grid and extract it again for use in pure form, in fuel cells for instance. Finally there are a number of smaller R&D projects for the development of hydrogen-related equipment, such as fuel cells. There is currently no specific hydrogen and fuel-cells programme in the Netherlands, but the topic is welcomed in several innovation and energy programmes.

Drivers and barriers

One way of analysing the discussion about hydrogen as an energy carrier in the Netherlands is to look at drivers and barriers. Several drivers consistently stand out in the hydrogen futures literature: air quality, climate change, security of energy supply and competitiveness/innovation. And the outstanding barriers are the absence of a hydrogen infrastructure, high costs, especially of fuel cells and sustainable hydrogen production, and technological immaturity (hydrogen on-board storage, limited range, lifetime of fuel cells) (McDowall and Eames, 2006). Evaluation of these drivers and barriers will show that the chances for hydrogen cannot be assessed on the basis of just the merits and flaws of hydrogen and fuel cells, but that a systemic analysis is needed which investigates all pathways and their potential linkages.

Local air quality

Air quality is high on the political and societal agenda in the Netherlands. The European Directive on Air Quality sets strict standards for maximum concentrations of soot, nitrous dioxide and other pollutants. The High Court has issued bans on industrial and residential construction projects because the related traffic intensity will cause too much air pollution. The economic impact amounts to billions of euros, as construction firms cannot do business, municipalities cannot issue land for new projects, and furnishing of new offices, factories and homes is delayed. Using photogenic satellite pictures of air pollution over Europe, environmental and health organizations campaigned for cleaner air to reduce respiratory problems and early deaths, especially among the elderly and the very young.¹

In fact, all this is going on at a time when air quality is probably better than it was before records were kept. Studies of trends in all sectors consistently show that air quality will improve more in the next decades, to reach levels which the World Health Organization has determined as safe for health. The use of hydrogen as an energy carrier in either fuel cells or internal-combustion engines promises zero or near-zero pollutant emissions, but other technologies can also reduce pollution to the desired levels, and at much lower costs in the near term. Examples are conventional engines with after-treatment, natural gas vehicles and hybrid cars. Hydrogen and fuel cells will be available too late to contribute much to better local air quality, and some ask the question whether the small additional gains from introducing hydrogen are worth the investments. Others argue that the promise of hydrogen is even delaying improvements in air quality: good near-term solutions such as natural gas vehicles are not introduced because stakeholders want to avoid investing first in natural gas equipment and then in hydrogen equipment.

Climate change

Emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, are implicated in climate change. The Dutch target within the EU burden-sharing agree­ment under the Kyoto Protocol is a 6 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2012. According to the government, the Netherlands will meet the Kyoto target with current policies, although environmental NGOs and other critics are doubtful of this. And the post-Kyoto policy is highly uncertain. The main directions will be energy saving, renewable sources, climate-neutral fuels and "clean fossil" (carbon capture and sequestration), but nuclear energy is also back in the discussion.

Hydrogen itself will not inherently reduce greenhouse gas emissions: this depends on the chosen production method. For reasons of production cost and availability of technology, hydrogen is most likely to be produced initially from natural gas through steam methane reforming, then by coal gasification and to some extent from biomass and wind energy.² In the long term hydrogen could be produced from all-renewable energy sources, thus reducing CO2 emissions to virtually zero. But there is doubt about the availability of enough renewables at reasonable cost, and using them for hydrogen production would mean less use of renewables for electricity production. Moreover, central production of hydrogen from fossil fuels with capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide can achieve the same effect, although opportunities are not yet developed for decentralized production of hydrogen. And hydrogen can be converted more efficiently than fossil fuels in fuel cells, thus reducing energy consumption.

The use of renewables for hydrogen production evokes discussion about the energy carrier to which renewables can best be converted. Electricity is a well-established option and, on the grounds of CO2 abatement costs, hydrogen has difficulty competing against "green current", especially for power supply in the stationary sector. The lack of good electric batteries means that hydrogen has the edge in transportation applications (although the successful market introduction of hybrids and advanced plug-in hybrids channels funds to battery improvement). But hydrogen storage is not yet at the level it should be to please drivers who are used to the performance of petrol and diesel cars. For heating, natural gas is the option to beat, and here hydrogen has to compete against biogas and synthetic natural gas.

Security of energy supply

Concerns over future availability of fossil resources, geopolitical sensitivity and location, energy prices and vulnerability of centralized energy systems to terrorist attacks have grown recently. Energy flows in the Netherlands show the importance of transit trade, the significance of the refinery industry and the importance of natural gas for domestic use (Van Arkel et al., 2004). The Netherlands' national energy mix has the highest share of natural gas use in the world. It is used mainly for power generation, heating and as industrial feedstock. Coal is the second-largest energy source for electric power. Nuclear energy and renewables (biomass, wind) have small shares in the energy mix. Transportation is almost completely dependent on mineral oil.

The depletion of energy sources is vigorously debated, especially in the "peak oil" controversy. Availability of "cheap oil" could end in between a few years and several decades, which would put the transport sector under extreme stress. Although crises can hopefully be avoided by taking advance action, there is no doubt that alternative sources to mineral oil are abundant. Both natural gas and coal can be converted to liquid fuels for transportation (gas-to-liquid, coal-to-liquid). Natural gas resources worldwide are enough for a century; coal is available for several centuries. Biomass is a growing source of energy and can also be converted to transportation fuels. Nuclear power plants could in theory be in operation "forever" if a system for recycling and reuse of the radioactive materials could be developed. Wind, sun, earth and tides could each provide endless energy.

As stated before, hydrogen in the Netherlands is most likely to be produced initially from natural gas, then from coal and to some extent from biomass and wind energy. This involves basically the same energy sources as those currently used for power and heating, and at first sight a change to hydrogen will improve energy security only in the transport sector. However, an important asset of hydrogen is that, like electricity, it severs the direct link between the energy source and end-use technology, creating system flexibility and thus improving security of energy supply. Hydrogen (again like electricity) enables all sources of energy to be placed on one equal competitive footing, allowing them to compete in all energy and fuel markets. Fuels, domestic heating and industrial power thus become one and the same market for hydrogen energy (European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform, 2006). This especially helps renewable energy sources to enter a more level playing field.

Innovation and competitiveness

An important reason why Europe embraces fuel-cell and hydrogen technology is competitiveness and innovation. Industry is perceived to be under threat from growing global competition, and new areas for economic growth are being sought. Innovation is certainly an important reason for the car industry to get involved with fuel cells. In addition to the promise of zero emissions, employing fuel-cell (and hybrid) technology allows wholly new vehicle designs and accessories. Cars can be built with fewer mechanical parts and more electronic systems.

In the Netherlands fuel cells and hydrogen are more in the energy domain than in the innovation domain. The national innovation platform headed by the prime minister has selected the clusters of food and flowers, creative industries, water, and high-tech systems and materials. Innovation in energy technologies did not make the shortlist, although high-tech systems could include energy technologies. In relation to hydrogen, the Netherlands has a strong knowledge base in gas technologies, gas handling, chemical production and engineering, logistics and transportation. There are also companies developing fuel cells, reformers, hydrogen storage technologies and micro-CHP systems. Dutch companies hold a number of relevant patents. So far the government is sceptical about these companies' opportunities to capitalize on their knowledge because it generally sees fuel cells and hydrogen as being in the domain of large international companies. It overlooks that there is scope for involvement of innovative small and medium-sized companies, especially in this early phase where the technologies are still highly experimental.

Absence of hydrogen infrastructure

The absence of a hydrogen infrastructure is often mentioned as a barrier to the introduction of hydrogen. This is both a tautology and not quite true. Various heavily industrialized areas have an infrastructure for hydrogen that is used in manufacturing. Moreover, hydrogen can be introduced as an energy carrier using existing infrastructures for natural gas and electricity. The natural gas grid can be used to transport hydrogen and to supply natural gas for on-site reforming to hydrogen. Similarly the electric grid can provide the energy for on-site electrolysis to hydrogen. Using these existing infrastructures for providing hydrogen has the advantage of low upfront investments and avoidance of lengthy planning procedures. On the other hand, these infrastructures have limited capacity to supply hydrogen. On-site reforming at a large filling station, for example, would equal the natural gas consumption for heating and cooking in a town of 20,000 inhabitants. Admixture of hydrogen to natural gas is limited by pipeline materials, operational procedures and end-user specifications.

Creating a new dedicated hydrogen infrastructure is attractive because of the notion of increasing returns. These are caused by several factors. Coordination effects or network externalities refer to the interrelatedness of the components in a particular system. The utility of the infrastructure increases with standardization of components and number of users. Economies of scale arise from the mechanism whereby once there is a critical mass, every next user of the infrastructure benefits from the provided services at lower costs, and new services can be added relatively easily. Learning effects are the result of experience gained by organizations that use the infrastructure to provide services ever more efficiently. And adaptive expectations refer to the situation where a certain alternative is perceived as the best and therefore is able to become the best (Gifford, 1996). Another bonus of creating a new infrastructure is that it opens up the market to new energy suppliers which can challenge the established players and thus shake up the whole energy system.

Choices in the development of a hydrogen infrastructure should be made carefully. Infrastructures have multiple equilibriums, which may lead to possible inefficiencies as the optimum for social welfare may not be the same as the optimum for technical efficiency or the optimum for private enterprise. The system may lock in on one of these optima, and it then becomes difficult to change the whole system (ibid.). Laying out the infrastructure for supplying energy to fuelling stations may lock out micro-grid developments and using automobiles as distributed power (powering homes with the car's fuel cell, filling up the tank at home).

High costs of fuel cells and sustainable hydrogen production

It is clear that fuel cells are currently much more expensive than internal-combustion engines, and sustainable hydrogen production is considerably more costly than hydrogen from fossil sources, especially natural gas. The cost of the transition to a hydrogen economy would be prohibitive if the transition has to be made with fuel cells and sustainable hydrogen from the start. It is wiser instead to take a step back in order to make several steps forward: experience can be gathered and a market can be developed with more conventional solutions, such as internal-combustion-engine vehicles fuelled with fossil-based hydrogen. The immediate benefits to the environment and security of energy supply are less, but costs are reduced as well as technical risks, and this is crucial for stakeholder involvement. The conventional technologies can pave the way for the more optimal solutions.

Cost projections indicate that fuel cells and sustainable hydrogen production will become more affordable, and possibly cheaper than conventional alternatives. Price reduction of fuel-cell stacks is steep. The Hy-Ways project identifies the future development of fuel-cell-drive system costs as the major uncertain factor, even before crude oil price developments. The main challenge to hydrogen use is to reach a price level for fuel-cell vehicles near the prices of conventional vehicles. In a range of analysed cases, HyWays concludes that fuel-cell vehicles will reach a competitive cost level.

Technological immaturity

Besides costs, other parameters of hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies need to improve too. Examples are capacity, weight and volume of hydrogen on-board storage, limited vehicle range (currently around 400 km), the lifetime of the fuel cells, power density and lifetime of batteries, among others. Considerable R&D effort is directed at achieving the needed improvements.

The evaluation of these drivers and barriers shows that the chances for hydrogen cannot be assessed on the basis of just the drivers and barriers or just the properties of hydrogen and fuel cells, but that a systemic analysis is needed which investigates hydrogen alongside other potential pathways and their potential linkages. Such an analysis has not yet been carried out for the Netherlands. In this regard, the technology-oriented practice in energy transition thus far may not be helpful. Instead, the analysis should work back from future energy demand in end-use applications: heating, power, materials and transportation. Energy demand projections should then be matched with the potentials for energy savings, energy efficiency and sustainable energy supply for the different end-use applications, including hydrogen. The potentials would be dependent on the established infrastructures and the alternatives to hydrogen, among other systemic factors.

Transition pathway for hydrogen in the Netherlands

The potential for hydrogen is currently limited in the stationary sector in the Netherlands, where natural gas provides most of the energy for heating and a large share of the energy for power. Hydrogen could be introduced in two ways in the stationary sector: to provide CHP (combined heat and power) or through admixture to natural gas. Natural gas is widely available, and where individual homes and utility buildings are not connected there is still a good chance that heat and power are provided by natural-gas-fired CHP plants. Almost all homes and utility buildings are connected to the national electricity grid. Introducing hydrogen fuel-cell CHP in the existing built environment therefore means disinvestments, but it can be an option in newly constructed areas. It then has to compete with innovations like direct natural gas fuel cells and Stirling engines.

The other option, admixture of hydrogen to natural gas, seems like wasting a high-grade product which preferably should be used in highly efficient fuel cells. When admixed, the hydrogen can only be used in less efficient combustion engines. On the other hand the natural gas grid is a cheap transport medium, and admixture of climate-neutral gas (hydrogen produced by carbon sequestration, biogas or synthetic natural gas) is one of the few options to "green gas". Government policy is going in the direction of promoting green gas to consumers, possibly with financial stimuli or producer obligations. There are substantial technical and physical limitations to admixture of hydrogen.

By contrast, the opportunities for hydrogen and fuel cells are tremendous in the transportation sector for several reasons. The move to hydrogen and fuel cells is mainly motivated by the car industry's desire to be able to supply an environmentally friendly product with equal performance to current vehicles, or preferably better, and for which the energy carrier of choice is always sufficiently available. The fuel cell solves the problem of limited energy storage capacity of electric batteries. Hydrogen can be produced in many different ways, whereas natural gas is not available everywhere and the biofuel potential is limited by the land area and competition from other biomass applications. The absence of local emissions and noise, the technology and the idea of becoming independent of oil create a strong appeal among consumers. As mentioned above, the Netherlands is highly dependent on oil in transport.

In the Netherlands the introduction of natural gas vehicles as an answer to air quality issues in urban areas paves the way for application of biogas, a CO2-neutral solution that is already available today. Natural or biogas for transportation will remain a niche application, but the experience gained with high-pressure gaseous fuels will speed up the transition to hydrogen. Similarly the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is an important stepping-stone to liquid hydrogen, especially in terms of public acceptance and developing new fuelling and storage technology. Moreover, the hydrogen can be produced centrally or on site from natural or biogas. Hydrogen – pure or mixed with natural gas – can also be used in existing gas-combustion engines, preferably in hybrid vehicles, until fuel cells are ready for the market.

The industrial hydrogen pipeline in the Rotterdam area offers an ideal test ground for demonstration projects with vehicles and fuelling stations, followed by market introduction. Such experiments would provide insight into barriers with respect to licences, safety and technical issues. The Netherlands does not have a strong automotive industry, but by hosting experiments the country can attract knowledge and economic activities related to hydrogen and fuel cells, and thus achieve a good posi­tion for business. The already strong Dutch knowledge base on gas, import of energy carriers and logistics can be improved more with hydrogen. Such chances may be missed if the Netherlands connects too late to projects like the Hydrogen Highway being developed in Germany, whereas stepping in now may generate added value at relatively low cost (E4tech, 2005).

Fuelling stations in the Randstad (the country's most densely populated area) could be supplied initially by liquid hydrogen in trucks until demand at the stations justifies investments in a pipeline infrastructure. The alternative is on-site hydrogen production, which will stay attractive in areas outside the Randstad where demand may not justify building pipelines. Mass production of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles is expected around 2015–2020. Hydrogen will initially be produced mainly from fossil sources, with carbon sequestration added on when and if it becomes technically and commercially feasible. The share of hydrogen from renewable sources (wind, biomass) will gradually increase. Once a pipeline infrastructure exists and fuel cells achieve economies of scale, the market chances for fuel-cell CHP also increase.

Conclusion

To realize a sustainable energy economy requires a new way of thinking and acting, drawing together competencies from various disciplines. The Netherlands has initiated the process of energy transition, in which the government actively seeks public-private cooperation to establish a shared vision and strategy and start joint experiments to investigate promising options. The approach takes into account changes that are not only necessary but also create opportunities for innovation and economic growth. Public-private energy transition platforms have identified the most promising transition pathways. Hydrogen and fuel cells are considered as one potential option in the transition portfolio. For the time being all portfolio options will be pursued. How competition between pathways for feedstock, production capacity, infrastructures and clients can be avoided, or by contrast employed as a selection mechanism, and how optimal synergies between pathways may be achieved merit thought. The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the portfolio has not been established. The argument in this chapter is that hydrogen has good potential in the transportation sector but much less so in the stationary sector when the technology is considered from a systemic perspective looking at the various pathways in energy transitions and the particular opportunities and costs in the Netherlands.

Notes

¹ Noise pollution is a less debated issue. Fuel-cell vehicles will have an important impact on traffic noise.

² For a more extensive discussion of hydrogen production technologies see chapters 3, 4, 7 and 17 in this volume.

REFERENCES

Council for Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment and General Energy Council of the Netherlands (2004) Energy Transition: A Climate for New Opportunities, joint advisory, December, The Hague: Council for Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment and General Energy Council of the Netherlands.

E4tech (2005) "The Economics of a European Hydrogen Automotive Infrastructure", study for Linde AG, 14 February, London, available at www.linde.com/hydrogen_flashsite_final/pdf/E4tech_hydrogen_study.pdf.

European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform (2006) "Key Outcomes of the Business Development Subgroup Work Conducted between June 2004 and March 2006. Final Summary", 17 March, Brussels, available at www.hfpeurope.org/hfp/keydocs.

Gifford, J. L. (1996) "Complexity, Adaptability and Flexibility in Infrastructures and Regional Development: Insights and Implications for Policy Analysis and Planning", in D. F. Batten and C. Carlson, eds, Infrastructure and the Complexity of Economic Development, Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Hoogma, Remco, Matthias Weber and Boelie Elzen (2005) "Integrated Long-term Strategies to Induce Regime Shifts towards Sustainability: The Approach of Strategic Niche Management", in Matthias Weber and Jens Hemmelskamp, eds, Towards Environmental Innovation Systems, Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Hoogma, Remco, René Kemp, Johan Schot and Bernhard Truffer (2002) Experimenting for Sustainable Transport. The Approach of Strategic Niche Management, London and New York: SPON Press.

Kemp, René (1997) Environmental Policy and Technical Change. A Comparison of the Technological Impact of Policy Instruments, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

McDowall, W. and M. Eames (2006) "Forecasts, Scenarios, Visions, Backcasts and Roadmaps to the Hydrogen Economy: A Review of the Hydrogen Futures Literature", Energy Policy 34: 1236–1250.

Ministry of Economic Affairs (2004) Innovation in Energy Policy. Energy Transition: State of Affairs and the Way Ahead, offered to Parliament on 29 April, The Hague: Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Rotmans, Jan (2003) Transitiemanagement. Sleutel voor een duurzame samenleving, Assen: Koninklijke van Gorcum.

Royston, Kate (2005) "Comparative Advantages of Investing in the Netherlands in Innovative Energy Projects", report for Ministry of Economic Affairs, December.

Task Force for Energy Transition (2006) Transitieactieplan. Naar een duurzame, veilige, betaalbare, betrouwbare en marktconforme energiehuishouding in 2050, The Hague: Task Force for Energy Transition.

Van Arkel, W. G., A. J. Bruijn, A. Kets, T. J. de Lange, G. J. Schaeffer, M. J. J. Scheepers, J. P. M. Sijm, M. A. Uyterlinde and M. J. N. van Werven (2004) Dutch Energy Policies from a European Perspective. Major Developments in 2003, Petten: ECN.

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