Document(s) 3 of 14

BACKGROUND ON THE PALESTINIAN STATISTICAL SYSTEM

After the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 1967, the Israeli military and civil authorities became responsible for collecting various data and statistics about Palestinian society. For almost 28 years, these authorities were actively involved in collecting the statistics about fields which, there is reason to believe, served the purposes of maintaining and prolonging the Israeli military occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The absence of an official Palestinian statistical system in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT) between 1967 and 1993 resulted in the inability of Palestinian planners and policymakers to undertake future planning to create realistic and objective developmental programmes.

On the eve of signing the Declaration of Principles (DOP) between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Israel in 1993, the PLO decided to set up a Central Bureau of Statistics for Palestine. This was the first national Palestinian agency to be set up on Palestinian soil as the peace process was unfolding, and was actually the first small beginning of an administrative apparatus for a future independent Palestinian state. At the time, there was nothing – no staff, no Palestinian produced statistics, no organization, no statistical infrastructure.

Since its establishment in September 1993, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) has endeavoured to fill the existing statistical gap in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip by compiling data in the social, economic, geographical and environmental fields in accordance with a specified priority schedule. In view of the fact that statistical priorities are numerous and urgent, and in an attempt to lay the basis for a scientific and practical Palestinian statistical system which would enjoy national and international credibility, a Master Plan for developing Palestine official statistics was articulated to fulfill the requirements and conditions of building a national statistical system capable of meeting emerging needs and joining the global statistical system without any obstacles.

In the Master Plan the general framework was established for a detailed statistical system to be developed over a period of five years, a system which would take into account the set of internal and external considerations listed above. At the internal level, the proposed plan would allow the Palestinian statistical system to collect reliable data in a cost-effective way in most areas of concern and in the least possible time. At the external level, efforts were made for the emerging Palestinian state to qualify to join the International Statistical Society and other international bodies and organizations, whose membership requires the provision of specific data and statistics through generally accepted standard ways and means.

The Master Plan set out the goals and the path. Everyone worked diligently, demonstrating strong morale and commitment, easing the difficult task of rapidly building an institution from scratch. These kinds of attitudes may only be possible in specific periods in the history of a nation. The Master Plan advocated carrying out the first ever Palestinian Population and Housing census as a central building block and a vital strategic 'must' for the building of the Palestinian statistical system. The census was implemented four years after the creation of PCBS, in December 1997, using long forms of 77 questions for all Palestinians living in OPT. Using the long form, most of the attributes of the Palestinian social fabric were captured, including those of Palestinian refugees living in the OPT.

This census represented a turning point in Palestinian efforts to set up an effective official statistical system for Palestine. It gave the Palestinian government a real opportunity to pursue nation-building based on rigorous and sound information, which is essential for development planning. Moreover, the small area statistics that have emerged from the census have empowered Palestinian communities, making it possible for them to draft sound policies based on solid information about their communities.

Now, almost ten years after its launch, the PCBS is the main supplier of statistical data on the Palestinian population of the Occupied Territories, and assumes its functions in accordance with recognized norms for statistical production, as stipulated by the UN Statistics Commission and the international community. The Palestinian statistical system, while suffering temporarily due to the difficult conditions on the ground, supplies statistics on a routine basis in more than 30 fields covering households and individuals, economic establishments and economic activities, and land-related activities. Where possible, data on standard characteristics, such as refugee status, gender, education and economic activity, are routinely collected through various censuses and sample surveys.

DATA SOURCES ON PALESTINIAN REFUGEES

Palestinian refugees (registered and unregistered) are scattered in many countries of the world. According to the PLO Department of Refugee Affairs, almost 83 per cent of Palestinian refugees reside in historic Palestine and bordering countries, 10 per cent reside in the rest of the Arab World, and 7 per cent in the rest of the world. Estimates of the size of the Palestinian refugee population, as well as their percentage distribution in countries of residence, vary according to the source of the data. Several agencies have tried to capture the size of the Palestinian refugee population its and socio-demographic attributes in an effort to generate a reliable estimate of the size of the population.

Apart from the statistical infrastructure currently in place through PCBS for the Palestinian refugees of the Occupied Territories, the statistics on Palestinian refugees elsewhere rely heavily on secondary sources. Statistics compiled from primary sources are derived mostly from administrative records and scant sample surveys. Sources of primary and secondary data include the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), Fafo, an independent Norwegian research foundation, the Damascus-based Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and Natural Resources¹, the Palestinian Right to Return Coalition (Al-Awda), the Palestinian Diaspora and Refugee Center (Shaml), Resource Center for Palestinian Residency and Refugee Rights (BADIL), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the PLO Department of Negotiation Affairs.

Table 2.1: Estimated Palestinian refugee population by country of residence,1998

Statistics issued from each of these sources, however, suffer from various deficiencies in the data such as coverage, timeliness, representation of samples to targets, and reliability. Data from UNRWA, for example, suffer from a lack of coverage of unregistered refugees; failure to capture data on refugees living outside camps; and a lack of systematic, robust, up-to-date methods to capture socio-demographic changes. Data coming from Fafo sample surveys are subject to incomplete frames in the case of Lebanon and Syria, and are subject to sampling errors in Jordan. Other sources use demographic models and UNRWA figures in arriving at the statistics produced.

Basic socio-economic characteristics of Palestinian refugees living in the Occupied Palestinian Territories have been captured by the Population and Housing census of 1997, and are routinely updated. In fact, both refugee status as well as residency in refugee camps are explicitly identified as primary identifiers in the master sampling frame, which is often used in drawing random samples for PCBS surveys. Census data and most of the sample survey data collected by PCBS are usually made public in the form of Public Use Files (PUF). These micro data represent an invaluable tool for research on the socio-economic conditions of refugees living in the Occupied Territories. Table 2.2 shows the available data, which can be used for analysis and forecasting.

Table 2.2: Schedule of censuses and sample surveys at PCBS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF REFUGEES IN OPT

The end-of-year Palestinian population of the Occupied Palestinian Territories for 2002 is estimated at 3.6 million inhabitants, with 2.3 million living in West Bank including Jerusalem and 1.3 million living in the Gaza Strip. The population is fairly young, with almost 53 per cent younger than 18 years of age. Among the de facto population, the most recent statistics indicate that 42.8 per cent are refugees, as shown by Table 2.3.

Table 2.3: Percentage distribution of the Palestinian population in the OPT by refugee status and region, mid-2002

Almost all residents of refugee camps are refugees (96.5 per cent), while refugees represent 36.5 per cent of Palestinians living in urban areas and 20.5 per cent of those living in rural areas. On the other hand, almost half of Palestinian refugees live in refugee camps (46 per cent), compared to 36.2 per cent living in urban areas and 17.8 per cent living in rural areas.

The refugee population in the Occupied Palestinian Territories is slightly younger than the rest of the population. However, the population pyramid for Palestinian refugees does not differ in a statistically significant way from that of the remaining population in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. While 46.4 per cent of the population as a whole is less than 15 years of age, 47.4 per cent of the refugees are in the same age category as compared to 45.6 per cent for the non-refugees. The age pyramid shows also some difference between the two groups at the upper end, where 3.3 per cent of non-refugees are over 65 years, compared to 3.1 per cent among refugees. Overall, however, the sex ratios are almost identical for both groups. The marginal difference between the two groups is also apparent from the statistics on Total Fertility Rates (TFR) (5.97 for refugees and 5.9 for non-refugees) and Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) (24.9 against 25.9 per 1000 live births). All these demographic indicators, which influence population growth, are suggestive of rapid population increase in the next few years. Assuming continuation of the status quo in terms of migration rates, and a steady decline in the other two components for population growth (TFR and IMR by 50 per cent in the next two decades), the refugee population of the Occupied Palestinian Territories is expected to reach 1.94 million in seven years. These forecasts are suggestive of a net growth of more than one third of the refugee population as a whole. These figures should attract attention to the growing challenges of a prolonged status quo on the question of refugees.

Palestinian households are known to be large due to high fertility rates, with significant differences between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and with refugee households being larger than those of non-refugees. The most recent statistics show that the average household size for 2002 was 6.4 persons, with 6.5 persons for refugee households and 6.2 for non-refugees. Table 2.4 shows that one in four refugee households has more than eight persons compared to one in five for non-refugee households.

Table 2.4: Percentage distribution of households in the OPT by size and refugee status, 2002

Education has long been seen as a valuable asset for refugees. Statistics on enrolment rates show that 42.7 per cent of refugees of six years of age or more have been enrolled compared to 40.6 per cent for non-refugees. The difference is more striking when comparing the two groups in terms of those possessing a university degree, where 4.9 per cent of refugees have a degree compared of 4.1 per cent among non-refugees.

Various indicators relating to economic well-being show that non-refugee households are better off than those of refugees. For example, the unemployment rate in 2002 for refugees reached 35.2 per cent compared to 28.7 per cent for non-refugees. Among the employed for the same year, one in three refugees assumed a professional occupation compared to almost one in four for non-refugees. On the other hand 67.2 per cent of employed refugees are wage earners compared to 54.5 per cent for non-refugees.

Table 2.5: Percentage distribution of employed persons (15+ years) by status and occupation, 2002

Table 2.6: Percentage distribution of persons (15+ years) by employment status and refugee status, 2002

Since January 2001, there has been serious deterioration in the livelihoods of Palestinians in the Occupied Territories. The 2002 estimates of income poverty show that two of three households live below the poverty line.⁷ The Gaza Strip, where two thirds of households are those of refugees, has suffered most. As for refugees, the statistics show that three in four households lived under the poverty line in 2002, compared to two thirds of non-refugee households. Discrepancies between refugees and non-refugees are also apparent through comparison of availability of durable goods in households.

MONITORING ATTITUDES REGARDING A SETTLEMENT OF THE REFUGEE QUESTION

The attitudes and positions of the Palestinian population of the Occupied Territories on rights, preferences, and expectations regarding the application of right of return, have been surveyed several times in the recent past through a series of public opinion polls. However, the findings of some of these polls should be viewed with caution due to apparent bias in tools, sampling and methodology, and analytical approach.

Without jeopardizing the right of Palestinian refugees to exercise their right of return as stipulated by the United Nations and international declarations, it is important to establish an absorption index to provide the emerging Palestinian state with a continuous flow of information on the various scenarios for the settlement of the refugee question, and the degree of acceptance of each of these scenarios. The index should be able to measure the process of convergence between preferences and expectations, and should be developed with a view to providing sound information for the drafting of policies on this sensitive issue.

Table 2.7: Households by availability of durable goods and refugee status, 2002

The question of preferences and expectations was tackled by the PCBS in a survey of 2,187 households in the Occupied Territories (1,507 in the West Bank and 680 in the Gaza Strip) between 15 and 19 May 2003. The target population was all adult persons within the households selected. During the fieldwork, fieldworkers were asked to collect observations on the receptivity of the general public to this kind of statistical activity. In general, the public was very receptive, but rather sceptical and pessimistic. The sceptics, who were mostly from Gaza, wondered about raising the issue of return when in fact 'people cannot even manage to reach their homes within Gaza'. Those who were pessimistic came from different sectors and places, and thought that there would be nothing on the horizon on this issue. It is interesting also that some of the selected individuals in the 18- to 19-year-old age group were rather ignorant about the question.

According to the survey results, while almost three quarters of the Palestinian population of the Occupied Territories prefer the return of refugees to their original homes, only 18.5 per cent expect this to happen in the case of refugees living in the Occupied Territories, and 23.1 per cent in the case of other refugees. Moreover, one in six believe that the refugees will end up settled where they are, with some improvement of their living conditions. Expectations regarding an ultimate solution vary according to whether the refugee is living in the Occupied Territories or elsewhere. As for refugees living in the Occupied Territories, 43.4 per cent of those surveyed expect continuation of their status quo, compared to 33.6 per cent for the refugees living elsewhere. Details of these findings are displayed in Tables 2.8 to 2.11.

Table 2.8: Preferred solution of refugee issue for refugees in the OPT, by region and refugee status

Table 2.9: Expected solution of refugee issue for refugees in the OPT, by region and refugee status

According to survey results, the general public is not optimistic about a solution involving the realization of return to the refugees' original homes (40 per cent v. 60 per cent), with refugees more inclined to believe that eventually a solution will be found through which camp sites will be improved for final settlement.⁸

DATA GAPS ON THE REFUGEE QUESTION

Current data on Palestinian refugees come mainly from UNRWA and the PCBS. A limited database has also been setup by Fafo using a series of one-shot sample surveys on the living conditions of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Syrian camps, Jordan and Jordanian camps. All other data sources depend directly or indirectly on the three sources mentioned above.

Table 2.10: Preferred solution of refugee issue for refugees living outside the OPT, by region and refugee status

The UNRWA databases are based mainly on data flowing from voluntary registration and administrative records resulting from the supply of services to Palestinian refugees residing within Palestine, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. It is not clear whether systematic efforts within UNRWA are made to keep these databases current and complete. Moreover, these data are often incomplete due to the lack of systems of updating, and limited or non-existence of services outside the boundaries of refugee camps, with no clear mechanism for updating these databases.

The PCBS databases are complete and current, and can be used for extensive analysis of the socio-economic conditions of the Palestinian refugees of the Occupied Territories. These data, however, are not focused on Palestinian refugees, but cover the population as a whole, with refugees being treated as a stratum in each survey or census. Moreover, none of the PCBS surveys target

Table 2.11: Expected solution of refugee issue for refugees living outside the OPT, by region and refugee status

Palestinian refugees in order to conduct in-depth studies. However, PCBS data are routinely updated and easily accessible for research and analysis.

Apart from Fafo, other data sources are basically users of data, and do not deal with data as a main activity. Hence, these sources contribute very little to any credible effort to set up a current and useful database on Palestinian refugees.

The data available on Palestinian refugees suffer from a fundamental gap regarding those Palestinians living outside the mandate areas of UNRWA. According to the PLO Department of Refugees Affairs, almost 17.5 per cent of Palestinian refugees are reported to be living outside that mandate. Therefore, very little, if anything, can be known about the various indicators regarding these Palestinians, including their positions on the question of future return or settlement. As for the remaining Palestinian refugees who are currently living within the five countries of the UNRWA mandate, serious data initiatives can and should be taken to fill existing gaps, and contribute to an eventual solution of the refugee question. These initiatives may include:

• An in-depth review of various databases in terms of coverage, timeliness, conceptual basis, methodology of updates, and comparability with the international standards and recommendations. This review should aim at matching and harmonizing existing sources in order to facilitate further research using these sources.
  
  
• A review with UNRWA of their databases in terms of content, possible updates, and usefulness for statistical purposes. The review may establish pragmatic methodologies for updating these databases.
  
  
• In-depth studies using available data and specially collected data on the absorption capacity of Palestinian society and its economy and investment needs, studies which could contribute to a smooth and controlled return of Palestinian refugees. These studies may focus on the challenges of absorption, including social inclusion, infrastructure, labour, housing, health and education.
  
  
• Sample-based studies on the socio-economic conditions of refugees in host countries, and the characteristics of refugees in the diaspora using the Fafo tools. These studies may be extended to focus on the socio-economic profile of potential returnees in order to facilitate the smooth social inclusion of returnees into Palestinian society.
  
  
• It is highly recommended to provide support for setting up a regional database at PCBS on potential returnees, and for UNRWA to launch an initiative designed to update its databases.

PCBS will welcome any initiative among the various stakeholders leading to the pooling of resources and expertise to establish rigorous databases on refugees and their concerns, irrespective of their current co-ordinates. PCBS is equally eager to examine all issues or questions that might be identified in the course of progress towards a final political settlement.

Document(s) 3 of 14